Pick Team USA over Canada to win the 4-Nations Cup

Updated February 20, 2025
Updated February 20, 2025By Tony Reyes

Team USA aims to defeat Canada again on Thursday in the 2025 4 Nations Final.

Earlier in the competition, the Americans secured a hard-fought 3-1 victory over Canada, ending their impressive 17-game winning streak in high-stakes international play.

Canada rebounded by defeating Finland 5-3, securing its spot in the final. Meanwhile, the U.S. opted to rest some key players after a 2-1 loss to Sweden on Monday.

Connor Hellebuyck will be in net for the United States, while Canada will turn to Jordan Binnington for the match.

Before we get to our picks, you should check out our NHL Betting page, which answers any questions you may have about it.

Game Preview (Canada vs. USA)

On Saturday, Jake Guentzel emerged as a national hero for the USA. He scored two goals to lead his team to victory over Canada in round-robin play.

MoneylineBetOnlineBetUSBovada
Canada-107-105-108
USA-105-115-108

While the Tkachuk brothers were instrumental, it was goalie Connor Hellebuyck, with 25 saves, along with defensemen Brock Faber and Jacob Slavin, who made significant contributions as unsung heroes.

As the U.S. prepares to continue its momentum from the weekend, the Canadians are ready to challenge them. Canada managed to take 26 shots on goal on Saturday, outpacing the Americans by three, but they couldn’t overcome the surprising physicality exhibited by the U.S. team.

Expect Canada to bring its signature fast-paced and intelligent style of hockey but with added physicality this time. They will not underestimate this U.S. squad on Thursday, especially at TD Garden.

Team Canada to win gameTeam Canada vs Team USA
-107
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Keep an eye on Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid, who combined for three goals in Canada’s decisive final round-robin victory over Finland. The Canadians were leading 4-0 at one point before winning 5-3.

MacKinnon and McDavid may find opportunities due to the absence of USA defenseman Charlie McAvoy, a key player who is sidelined with an injury and subsequent infection.

This matchup will come down to whether Canada’s offense can break through the USA’s defense and if Canada’s defensive unit can contain the American attack.

St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington, who has been under significant pressure, may have shown signs of fatigue on Monday, as he allowed Finland to score three consecutive goals.

In the end, picking against the USA, especially in front of a home crowd in Boston, feels unlikely.

More than just bragging rights are at stake—national pride is on the line, especially after the Canadians’ booing of the National Anthem.

Expect the USA to fight hard and emerge victorious in the inaugural 4 Nations Championship.

Team USA to win gameTeam Canada vs Team USA
-108
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Before deciding what you want to bet, check out our betting guides to choose the best one.

Total Goals

Team USA has dominated the expected goals category in all three of its matches.

Total GoalsBetOnlineBetUSBovada
Over 5.5+114+115+100
Under 5.5-131-135-120

During their round-robin clash, it held Canada to just one goal despite facing an expected total of 3.98 goals. Furthermore, in its final game against Team Finland on Monday, Canada posted a 41.9 xGF%, yielding 15 high-danger scoring chances while only creating five of its own.

In short, I don’t anticipate Team Canada will be able to beat Hellebuyck more than twice.

Plus, since this is the final, Canadian head coach Jon Cooper will likely be particularly determined to have all six skaters on the ice if they find themselves trailing at the end of the game.

This one ends in a 4-2 win for Team USA over Canada.

Over 5.5 GoalsTeam Canada vs Team USA
+115
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About the Author

Tony Reyes
Tony Reyes

Tony is a pro sports journalist who dedicates most of his free time to watching the latest matches and games on TV. Tony enjoys outdoor activities such as hiking, cycling, and basketball when he's not participating in sports-related activities or seeing his friends. In addition to being a sports expert, Tony has extensive knowledge of finances and accounting. He leverages this expertise to provide insightful betting analysis for all sports, identifying value based on overlooked factors.

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