The UEFA Champions League final returns to Wembley Stadium in London this weekend for the first time since 2013 when Bundesliga giants Borussia Dortmund take on the Kings of Europe Real Madrid.
Dortmund defied all the odds to make it to their first final since a 2013 defeat to Bayern Munich, while Real Madrid will look to make it six Champions League wins in the last 11 seasons and their first since 2022.
We’ll take a look at the fixture and break down both teams’ chances of success while providing you with our best free soccer picks to try and earn you some extra cash.
| Champions League Final 2024 |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | +425 | +400 | +400 |
| Real Madrid | -155 | -155 | -155 |
| Draw (90mins) | +322 | +310 | +310 |
Learn more about how to bet on the UEFA Champions League here.
Borussia Dortmund weren’t expected to even get out of the group stages after being drawn alongside Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan and Newcastle United. But with three wins and just one defeat from the six games, Dortmund shocked everyone when they ended up winning the group and qualifying.
That set them up to take on PSV Eindhoven where they claimed a 3-1 aggregate victory after a 2-0 home win in the second leg thanks to goals from Jadon Sancho and Marco Reus, which set them up for a quarter-final clash with Atletico Madrid.
The Spanish club won the first leg 2-1 in Madrid, but Dortmund bounced back with a stunning second leg 4-2 win to move them to the semi-finals where they faced off with PSG once again. There they won 1-0 both home and away to earn their place in the final.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side on the other hand were expected to cruise through the group stages and did just that, claiming a 100% winning record from group stage games against Napoli, Union Berlin and Braga.
That set up a first-knockout round clash with RB Leipzig where Brahim Diaz‘s solo goal was the difference in Germany, before a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu saw them progress through on aggregate.
In the quarter-finals they faced off against Pep Guardiola‘s Manchester City team in a sensational tie, with the first-leg in Madrid ending 3-3 before a 1-1 draw in Manchester took the game to penalties, where the Spaniards claimed a shootout win.
They then faced Bayern Munich in the semi-finals and after a close-fought 2-2 draw in the first leg, before two late Joselu goals overturned a deficit at home in the second leg to help them through to the final.
Dortmund were not supposed to be taking part in this game judging by pre-season predictions and mid-season performances, but here they are.
Edin Terzic has transformed the team in the second half of the season to make them more solid defensively and better set up for cup competitions, but also still a threat when going forward following the arrivals of Ian Maatsen and Jadon Sancho.
But against Real Madrid they will need their defensive stability to be at it’s best while hoping to counter-attack effectively because of the way the Spanish champions are likely to set up.
The midfield will control the game with Toni Kroos’ final appearance at club level before retirement this summer, while Luka Modric, Fede Valverde and Edouardo Camavinga should lineup alongside him in the absence of Aurelien Tchouameni.
They will still have the pace of Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo in attack with Jude Bellingham supporting, and that level of talent can punish any little mistake even if they’re not at their best.
Madrid are likely to control possession with Dortmund trying to stay compact and then counter, but the athleticism of Los Blancos‘ defenders means it won’t be easy even then. In reality, the Yellow Wall need a little bit of luck and a perfect performance to claim their first Champions League title since 1997.
They’re the favorites for a reason and it’s because they haven’t lost a European Cup final since 1981, while also arguably being the best team in Europe this season.
Defensively they’re so strong, and Ancelotti has a big decision to make on whether to stick with Andriy Lunin in goal or give a start to the recently fit-again regular number one Thibaut Courtois. But either way, there is too much quality to doubt them.
They always find a way to get the win, whether it is with stunning and exciting football or if they have to dig in and grind it out. Real Madrid have more talent, a better coach and more proven winners in their squad, so -155 is a fantastic price for them to win in 90 minutes.
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For a bit of extra value, there is a solid bet on the Spanish side to claim the victory in both halves of football.
Madrid tend to be fast starters in big games and with their attacking quality there is no doubt they’re capable of scoring, while if they have that lead it will lead to Dortmund being more open later on in the game and can open them up for another goal.
It’s hard to see how Dortmund can effectively attack them which means them scoring at all is unlikely, so you’re essentially backing Madrid to score in both halves at +140. Perfect.
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About the Author
Daniel is a football writer who has a great thirst for the Premier League and other major European leagues. A lover of the beautiful game and a firm believer that the eye test is better than statistics. Also an avid MMA fan.
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