The Formula 1 heads to Monza this weekend for the Italian Grand Prix, and there’s a fresh face leading the odds after Lando Norris‘ commanding performance at Zandvoort last weekend. The McLaren driver cruised to victory, crossing the finish line over 22 seconds ahead of runner-up Max Verstappen, marking his second career win, with his first triumph taking place in Miami back in May.
The competition has become so fierce that the Formula 1 betting sites no longer place Max Verstappen as the favorite to win the Italian Grand Prix, despite his victories in the last two editions of the race. Instead, it’s Lando Norris who is attracting the lowest odds heading into qualifying.
| Italian GP |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +120 | +120 | +120 |
| Max Verstappen | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Charles Leclerc | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Oscar Piastri | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Carlos Sainz | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| George Russell | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
Norris now tops the list of favorites to claim victory at Monza, aiming to add a third win to his season’s achievements. His newly upgraded McLaren was dominant at Zandvoort, but will it maintain that form at the Temple of Speed? Meanwhile, his teammate Oscar Piastri is the fourth favorite, at similar odds to the Mercedes drivers, who struggled during what their boss described as an “off weekend” in the Netherlands. The big question remains: how will the RB20 perform this weekend? Can Verstappen challenge Norris, or will his championship lead take another hit?
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Mercedes appeared to be the dominant force with three wins in four races, but Zandvoort brought them back to earth. Their race pace faltered, leading to a drop in their odds for a podium finish. This season, the podium has been much tougher for midfield teams to reach—no one outside the top four teams has managed to stand on it yet. Fernando Alonso’s fifth-place finish in Saudi Arabia remains the best result for a midfield team in a Grand Prix, while Daniel Ricciardo’s fourth place in the Miami Sprint deserves an honorable mention.
Oscar Piastri to get a top 3 finish could be a solid bet at odds of +125.
Sergio Perez’s challenges this season have been well documented, but the Mexican driver has shown signs of improvement recently—reaching Q3 in the last two race weekends and finishing in the points in both. With his car no longer dominating the field, the question is whether he can still secure strong results to maximize points for his team. Red Bull’s lead in the constructors’ championship is gradually shrinking, making a strong performance at Monza crucial as they aim to pull away from McLaren. However, with Baku on the horizon, a track that typically favors both their car and drivers, they might have a chance to regain some ground.
Monza is a legendary circuit in the racing world, but it’s relatively straightforward, featuring several long straights and a few tight turns and chicanes. Straight-line speed is key for overtaking here, as is avoiding brake lock-ups when approaching the tighter sections. DRS plays a significant role on the lengthy straights, but once a driver gains a lead of over a second, it becomes challenging for others to close the gap, so expect drivers to push hard to secure clean air.
While a strong start is always crucial in F1, it’s especially important at Monza, where the field can quickly spread out, making it nearly impossible to recover lost ground. Fortunately, the weather forecast looks promising, with ideal conditions expected for the teams this weekend.
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About the Author
Henry began his journey in the betting industry before transitioning into a writing career. While his expertise lies in soccer, golf, and darts, he covers a wide range of sports from across the globe. Armed with a BA Honors degree in Business and Management, Henry climbed the ladder at William Hill in England. Beyond sports writing, he has also achieved success in the Property and Finance sectors, where he continues to be active. Now based in Barcelona, Henry enjoys the city’s vibrant sports culture and plays golf year-round as a member of the Real Federacion Espanola de Golf.
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