The Phoenix Suns take on the Denver Nuggets in the third match of their Western Conference Semi-Final series, and after two wins from the opening two matches for Denver, a win for the Suns is almost essential already. Can the Suns bounce back with a win? Or will Denver go 3-0 up and to the brink of the Championship final? Let’s take a look with our latest NBA betting picks.
The Denver Nuggets won the opening match of the series 125-107. They followed that up with a 97-87 win on Tuesday, and they are now in pole position to make it to the Western Conference final.
In the betting to win the series, the Nuggets are now -425 with the best NBA playoffs betting sites. The Suns are priced up at +345. While in the betting to win the NBA Championship, the Nuggets are now the second favorites at +400, with the Suns out at +1200.
This is a remarkable turnaround given that the Suns were one of the three betting favorites immediately after they traded in Kevin Durant earlier in the season. A trade that was made with the playoffs in mind.
Elsewhere, and the betting favorites to win the NBA Championship is still the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are +220 with the best NBA betting sites. Then it’s Denver at +400, with the LA Lakers now remarkably into third favorites at +425.
Below we’ve put together more betting to win the 2023 NBA Championship. For more information about the betting sites on our odds table, please check out our online sportsbook reviews page.
| Betting to Win 2023 NBA Championship |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +220 | +220 | +220 |
| Denver Nuggets | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| LA Lakers | +425 | +425 | +425 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Golden State Warriors | +750 | +750 | +750 |
| Phoenix Suns | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| New York Knicks | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Miami Heat | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
Denver may have upset the odds to get to this stage, but their results are going to form. The Nuggets topped the Western Conference table with eight wins more than the Suns. But despite this, they have been behind the Suns in the betting. But one place they certainly haven’t been behind the Suns is out on the court. And it’s out on the court where it all counts.
The Suns were backed in to win the Championship off the back of the Durant trade. Overnight they saw their odds dramatically slashed to win the championship. While this was happening, the Nuggets were largely ignored. And now Michael Malone’s franchise is just two wins away from knocking Durant and the Suns out of this year’s playoffs.
Jamal Murray (34 points), Nikola Jokic (24), and Aaron Gordon (23) were instrumental in the 125-107 win in the first match. Then in the second match of the series, it was Nikola Jokic with 39 of the Nuggets’ 97 points that did the bulk of the damage.
As for the Suns, well Kevin Durant has turned up and performed. But his 29 and 24 points hauls haven’t been enough. And in the second match, Devin Booker outscored Durant, and almost matched Jokic for the Nuggets, with 35 of the Suns’ 87 points. And that still wasn’t enough to score a win over Denver.
In short, it seems fair to say the Nuggets have simply outperformed the Suns. How much of that was down to home advantage, we are about to find out.
In the betting to win the match, the Suns’ home advantage has seen them installed as the favorites with the bookmakers. On the moneyline, the Phoenix Suns are -165 to win, with the Denver Nuggets at +145.
On the handicap line, the Nuggets are receiving a +3.5 points start. The Nuggets (+3.5) are -110, with the Suns (-3.5), also at -110. Finally, on the total points spread, over 224.5 is -110, and under 224.5 is also -110.
Ahead of the opening two matches of the series, the Suns defeated the LA Clippers 4-1, and the Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves by the same scoreline.
The Suns lost their opener 115-110 at home to the Clippers, but then reeled off four straight wins to comfortably take the series. As for the Nuggets, they raced into a 3-0 series lead over the Timberwolves. They lost the fourth match 114-108 after overtime on enemy ground. But they then got the job completed with a hard fought 112-109 win in Match 5 of the series.
All in all, neither side was greatly pushed in their 1st Round wins, and both managed to save themselves from playing two extra matches. This means the best guide for form seems to come from the opening two matches of this series.
In the series so far the Nuggets have won by 18 and ten points. In the first match, the damage was done in the second quarter, which the Nuggets took 37-19. But in the last match the game was won for Denver in the final quarter. At the end of the 3rd quarter, Phoenix were 73-70 up. But they were simply blown away in the final period of the match, only managing 14 points to Denver’s 27.
Does this all point to the Suns’ maybe running out of gas? Possibly. But with so much on the line, it’s hard to write Phoenix off. But what we do think is this will be a close match, and therefore we are choosing the Nuggets to win on the handicap line for our NBA betting pick.
About the Author
Dean is primarily a fan of English football who regularly attends games, and combining his hobby with his job, he is now a full-time sports betting writer. Rather than going down the educational route into sports journalism, Dean learned his trade by writing for his English football betting website since 2009, where he now boasts nearly 15 years of experience. After writing about football daily for years, Dean has taken the skills he learned and now uses them to great effect writing for numerous affiliate sites across the internet. A general all-around sports enthusiast with a passion for English football and cricket, Dean is also well able to turn his hand to writing about golf, tennis, F1, boxing, snooker, darts, and North American sports. Combining his extensive knowledge and experience with British humor and wit, Dean has developed into a trusted voice within the sports betting industry.
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