The NFL season has reached the business end of the season as the top teams in the AFC Division go head-to-head for a chance to compete in the divisional final.
The reigning and defending champions the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans in the opening game of the weekend, before the Baltimore Ravens travel to take on the Buffalo Bills in the weekend closer in what should be two huge games of football.
We’ll take a look at both games and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action on the field.
| NFL Playoffs: AFC Divisional Round |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +393 | +390 | +355 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -483 | -500 | -490 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -116 | -115 | -125 |
| Buffalo Bills | -104 | -105 | +105 |
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The consecutive Super Bowl champions are well on course to become the first team ever to three-peat after a fantastic regular season, which sees them come into the playoffs with the best regular season record of any time after just two defeats all year.
They’ll be taking on a Texans side who won the AFC South for the second consecutive year, and progressed through the Wild Card round with a dominant 32-12 win over the Los Angeles Rams last weekend at home.
These two teams have already met earlier in this season just before Christmas, with Patrick Mahomes once again shining as he led his side to a 27-19 win, and it seems likely that we’ll see something similar in this game.
Kansas City come into this game as nine-point favorites with some bookies. While they won 15 games during the regular season, only four of those were by a margin of eight or more points and that makes taking Houston’s spread incredibly appealing.
Houston do also have a path to victory, regardless of how small, as their pass rush should be able to cause some problems to Kansas’ poor offensive tackle play. If the defense can get to Mahomes quickly, it’ll give CJ Stroud and the offense a few more chances to stay in the game.
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Mahomes and the Chiefs have perfected the art of the fourth-quarter drive, often getting just enough first downs to kill the clock without scoring and while that may not be the case in this game they’re unlikely to be at their 100% best after a couple of weeks off.
Despite the excellent quarterbacks, it’s the defenses of both sides that have really shone more than anything this season.
Kansas City’s defense ranked fourth in the NFL this season in points allowed per game (19.2) and that really is the base of all their success.
Unders are 10-7 in Kansas City’s contests and 11-7 in Houston’s games this campaign including their playoff game last time out, so I like it to land again even though their last meeting saw the total surpassed.
Both of these teams had to battle through the Wild Card phase to get to this stage, but both come in after fantastic regular seasons themselves.
Baltimore have had the MVP-elect Lamar Jackson flying all season and after a 12-5 regular season record, they claimed a dominant 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in their playoff opener. Buffalo on the other hand have had their own MVP candidate in Josh Allen this season as the Bills went 13-4 in the regular season before a stunning 31-7 win over the Denver Broncos.
While the teams look relatively close on paper and with performances, the Ravens are road favorites here for a good reason – they’re simply the better team.
These two teams met back in week 4 and while Jackson didn’t have to do much in that game, attempting only 18 passes, they waltzed to a stunning 35-10 win while being the home team. This time on the road Buffalo will be looking to force more of an offensive battle, but they’ll likely still struggle.
The problem with that is Baltimore’s improvements in pass defense, as they rank 1st in Pass EPA since Week 11. With the odds at nearly pick’em, the value is in Baltimore getting the win and setting up a meeting with the Chiefs in the divisional final.
While Buffalo will be hoping to outscore their opponents rather than stop them scoring, the highly-improved Baltimore defense is going to be a big hurdle for them to overcome.
Since Week 11, Baltimore has allowed 23 points or fewer in each of their eight games, including a defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles and Jalen Hurts.
The Ravens will look to do exactly the same to Allen and Buffalo, and the 27.5 point bar is simply too high. Take the under.
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About the Author
Daniel is a football writer who has a great thirst for the Premier League and other major European leagues. A lover of the beautiful game and a firm believer that the eye test is better than statistics. Also an avid MMA fan.
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