Russian champion Islam Makhachev is heavily favored to defeat challenger Arman Tsarukyan in their world lightweight title bout, the main event on the card at UFC 311. Makhachev is set as the prohibitive -380 odds-on chalk in this fight.
The co-main event at UFC 311 is featuring a pair of talented fighters battling for the UFC bantamweight crown. Unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0-0) is the massive -360 favorite to dethrone champion Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0).
| UFC 311 Odds | The Pick |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan | Makhachev | -380 | -405 | -390 |
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | -360 | -325 | -360 |
In this article, SBS will be going over each fighter, offering a predicted winner in both matchups, and also providing some additional notes and information regarding UFC 311 betting.
Fighter Spotlight: Islam Makhachev
According to the UFC, Makhachev isn’t merely the best lightweight fighter in the world, he’s best best fighter, period. In the latest UFC pound for pound rankings, the Russian is situated at No. 1. He also held down that spot for all of 2023.
His four lightweight title wins are tied for the most in the promotion’s history.Makhachev’s 93.8% win rate is the second-highest in UFC history. Makhachev hasn’t lost since 2015. He’s won 14 bouts in succession, including title wins over Charles Oliveira, Alexander Volkanovski (twice) and Dustin Poirier.
Fighter Spotlight: Arman Tsarukyan
This bout is a rematch and the first meeting didn’t go well for Tsarukyan. He lost a unanimous decision to Makhachev in 2019. They did earn fight of the night honors, so that bodes well in terms of entertainment value for this fight.
The Armenian is 9-1 since that setback. Tsarukyan defeated former lightweight champion Oliveria in his most recent bout. He’s won his last four fights, two of them by knockout. However, he’s coming off a nine-month suspension for punching a fan at his last bout.
Prediction: Tasrukyan faces a double-edged challenge if he’s to defeat and dethrone Makhachev. At 60.3%, the Russian owns the highest significant strike accuracy in the history of the UFC lightweight division. At the same time, Makhachev allows the fourth-fewest significant strikes absorbed per minute (1.51) in the weight class. He’s also the owner of the second-best takedown defense percentage (90.9%) for UFC lightweights.
So basically, the analytics say that Tsarukyan will struggle to hit Makhachev, or take him to the mat. But he will be feeling plenty of punishment. It all adds up to another successful title defense for Makhachev.
Fighter Spotlight: Merab Dvalishvili
Known as The Machine, Dvalishvili was pulling off the upset when he dethroned Sean O’Malley for the UFC bantamweight title in his previous bout. He’s won his last 11 fights and is unbeaten since 2018.
Dvalishvili lost his first two bouts after joining UFC. Since, he’s posted victories over such luminaries in the division as Peter Yan, Henry Cejudo and Jose Aldo. The Georgian owns UFC bantamweight marks for the most total strikes landed in division history (1950) and most control time in division history (1:14:05).
Fighter Spotlight: Umar Nurmagomedov
The cousin of UFC icon Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar Nurmagomedov is 6-0 since joining the UFC. A Russian fighter, Nurmagomedov has two wins by submission and one by knockout among his UFC bouts.
There is one worrisome element heading into this fight, however. Nurmagomedov recently revealed in an interview that he suffered a broken arm in preparation for this bout. While his manager was advising him not to fight, Nurmagomedov is insisting his arm has healed and it hasn’t made significant impact on his training regimen.
Prediction: This fight should prove to be a classic. These two fighters rank 1-2 in control time in UFC bantamweight history. A powerful presence, Nurmagomedov owns the highest significant strike percentage in the division (63.1%).
Dvalishvili has shown in recent fights against O’Malley and Cejudo that he can be hit and that might be a major factor in the outcome. He’s never faced a fighter with the striking power of Nurmagomedov, who will maintain his unbeaten mark and be crowned a champion.
Once you have settled on the wagers you will be making with each of your UFC 311 bets, you’ll want to be sure to have a look at the massive amounts of data available to you only at SBS. For more insightful analysis into all of the bouts on the card covered here, be certain to have a look at the UFC betting sites guide. These guides are providing the latest assessments for all of the betting lines the oddsmakers are setting on the sport. This information will aid you in assembling some solid UFC 311 picks.
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Theo is our NFL guy. He is the go-to man for all things football and has proven himself to be one of the most expansive writers here, with a broad knowledge of North American sports. He's a veteran journalist based in Ontario, and has covered the gambling and sports betting industry since 2016. He has written more than two dozen books and covered the NFL since the early 1990s.
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