The NFL is back for the 2024/25 season and this week we’ll see two teams with good starts to the season go head-to-head as the Atlanta Falcons host the Kansas City Chiefs in week 3.
The Falcons started the season with defeat at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers before victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Chiefs have gone 2-0 after beating Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.
We’ll take a look at the two teams and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to try and earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action on the field.
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Pre-season is a period for coaches to implement their ideas and for players to gain fitness and match sharpness after a period of time off, so results are not always the most important thing.
However, Falcons fans will no doubt be worried by their showings so far in the early part of the season. Their pre-season started with a 20-13 defeat to the Miami Dolphins, before a super close loss to the Baltimore Ravens in a one-point game. They ended pre-season with a blowout loss though, getting blasted 31-0 by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Still, they went into their opening NFL game at home with confidence and led 10-9 at half-time against the Steelers. But a poor second half saw them fail to score a point and they fell to an 18-10 defeat. They then followed that up with a clash against the Philadelphia Eagles, and a late touchdown from Drake London secured them the shock win.
The Chiefs have been more free-scoring than the Falcons in pre-season, but their defense has been wide open as they suffered three straight defeats.
A trip to the Jacksonville Jaguars saw them lose 13-26 at the EverBank Stadium in their opening game, before a close fought game against the Detroit Lions saw them lose 23-24 at home. They then closed out pre-season with a 21-34 defeat to the Chicago Bears, after being blown away 14-0 in the third quarter, despite pulling it back in the final quarter.
In the opening game of the season the team controlled the Ravens to earn a 27-20 win at home as they look to push forward for a third consecutive title, and they made it 2-0 last weekend with a fourth-quarter comeback against the Cincinatti Bengals thanks to a late field goal from Harrison Butker.
The Chiefs won’t be at full strength when they visit Atlanta, as running back Isiah Pacheco has a broken leg and is set to join wideout Hollywood Brown in the treatment room. Despite that however, Kansas City should still have more than enough about them to get a fairly comfortable win.
Atlanta’s failure to show they can get close to opposition quarterbacks is a major worry for them, especially when they’ll be coming up against one of the greatest of all time in Patrick Mahomes. The Falcons have generated the lowest rate in the NFL when it comes to pressures on dropbacks, and that contributed hugely to Jalen Hurts dominating them last week.
You cannot do that against Mahomes. You also can’t blitz him, which means they have to get coverage and that is something they don’t do nearly well enough.
The Falcons have had a short week and they don’t have much going for them at this point. Despite the Chiefs not being at 100% they should still be led to a dominant win by Mahomes so covering the spread is the easy and obvious choice.
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If the Falcons can’t pressure Mahomes with four, I don’t see how they get many stops on Sunday night and that means points galore for the Chiefs.
The Over is 2-0 in Chiefs’ games and 0-2 in Falcons’ games this season, and with Kansas set to be the ones controlling the play it’s likely to come in once again.
Atlanta should also contribute to this total, as Cousins and the Falcons ironed out some of the kinks from Week 1 in Week 2 and should continue to improve offensively as the season goes on. But the concern would be if the Chiefs decide to lock them down and use this to improve defensively.
Still, the over is the far more likely outcome between these two teams and at -110 there is excellent value in taking the bet nice and early too.
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About the Author
Daniel is a football writer who has a great thirst for the Premier League and other major European leagues. A lover of the beautiful game and a firm believer that the eye test is better than statistics. Also an avid MMA fan.
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