The NFL is back for Week 11 of the 2023 season as the Baltimore Ravens play host to the Cincinnati Bengals at the M&T Bank Stadium in this week’s edition of Thursday night football.
The Ravens are currently 7-3 for the season after their defeat at the weekend saw a four-game winning streak snapped, while the Bengals are 5-4 having seen their own four-game winning streak ended in their most recent outing.
With a good match-up on the cards we’ll take a look at the individual prop bets available for the game and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you take in the action on the field.
Rookie Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell had 138 rushing yards against a very good Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 9 and followed that up with a 64-total-yard outing last week vs. the Cleveland Browns, but his usage late was head-scratching.
Mitchell had just four snaps and one touch in the second half last week as Baltimore was outscored 24-14 in the final 30 minutes in an epic collapse. But the coach has confirmed he will be involved again, and that means a chance to make amends.
Gus Edwards’ rushing total week-to-week is a slight increase from 43.5 to 45.5 this week, while Keaton closed with a rushing total of 21.5 and a receiving total of 5.5 yards against a tougher rush defense last week. He has a chance to really shine here.
The Ravens could also lean on the run even more than their 51% run rate as Lamar Jackson and the passing game have hit a wall, with the quarterback failing to throw for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games.
Edwards is the man inside the 20s and Jackson is a vulture too, but Mitchell is a threat to score outside of the 20s and has done so already in back-to-back games with just 15 touches. Back him to make it three in a row.
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Odell Beckham Jr has exceeded this prop in four of the last five games played, and he could easily exceed this prop in a single catch against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night.
The Bengals have allowed a crazy 332 passing yards per game across the last three games they’ve played, which includes 350-plus yard games to Brock Purdy‘s San Francisco 49ers and C.J. Stroud‘s Houston Texans.
Across the past two games, Beckham has been targeted at the same rate as Zay Flowers, and he has the most receiving yards among Baltimore receivers not named Mark Andrews.
When the lights are brightest is when OBJ likes to perform at this best, so take this prop to come in and earn yourself some extra cash.
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Over the last three games played, the Bengals have allowed an average of 100 receiving yards per game and 10.75 yards per target to the tight end position with an 82.1% catch rate (Dalton Schultz, Dalton Kincaid and George Kittle).
For the season, they have allowed 67 yards per game, 8.72 yards per target and an 80% catch rate. This is a smash spot for the elite tight end, who is averaging 58 receiving yards per game with a 22% target rate this season.
He also owns a team-high 25.5% of the Ravens’ receiving yards and 5.28 yards after the catch. This looks like a great bet and there is decent value on it, although it is going out as we get closer to game time.
This seems like a fantastic value bet when you take into account the stats of Flowers’ season so far.
The Ravens wide-receiver is averaging 54.5 receiving yards per game so far this season, which is two more than the total of his bet for this market. In fact, he has surpassed this 52.5 receiving yards total in six of his ten appearances this season.
His average prop total comes in at 50.3 total yards which is more than four yards less than his average, and Flowers has gone over his prop for receiving yards in five of nine games this season.
With plenty of eyes on fellow wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr and tight-end Mark Andrews, there is a great chance for Flowers to get it done again and help his side to another win in this impressive campaign that they are having.
About the Author
Daniel is a football writer who has a great thirst for the Premier League and other major European leagues. A lover of the beautiful game and a firm believer that the eye test is better than statistics. Also an avid MMA fan.
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